How to Forecast Your Floral Business Income (So You Can Pay Yourself)
In this episode of The Floral CEO Podcast, Jen walks you through a simple, real-world way to forecast your floral business revenue—using the bookings you already have (or want) to estimate your average wedding value, close rate, expenses, flower costs, labor, taxes, and ultimately how much you can pay yourself.
Whether you’re a newer florist or you’ve been in business for years but still feel unclear about money, this episode gives you a practical framework to stop guessing and start planning like a CEO.
Whether you’re a newer florist or you’ve been in business for years but still feel unclear about money, this episode gives you a practical framework to stop guessing and start planning like a CEO.
What You’ll Learn (Key Takeaways)
- How to calculate your average wedding order value (AOV) so you can forecast income
- How to use your close rate to estimate how many leads you need to hit your booking goal
- A simple “CEO math” approach to estimate:
- Flower/COGS percentage
- fixed monthly expenses (your “turn the lights on” costs)
- freelance labor
- sales tax/tax set-asides
- profit cushion
- owner pay
- Why guessing creates scarcity—and why forecasting creates confidence
- How to put this into a spreadsheet so you can make smarter decisions all year
The Framework Jen Uses (Step-by-Step)
1) Start with your funnel numbers (your real booking pipeline)
Track these numbers:
- How many inquiries/leads you receive
- How many you respond to / have real conversations with
- How many consults you book
- How many proposals you send
- How many you close (booked + contract signed)
Close rate formula:
Booked weddings ÷ proposals sent = close rate
Booked weddings ÷ proposals sent = close rate
Jen’s note:
If your close rate is very high, you may be underpriced (you’re “too easy to book”).
If your close rate is very high, you may be underpriced (you’re “too easy to book”).
2) Calculate your average wedding value (AOV)
Average wedding value formula:
Total booked wedding revenue ÷ number of booked weddings = AOV
Total booked wedding revenue ÷ number of booked weddings = AOV
This gives you a usable “planning number” even if you have a few outliers.
3) Forecast income based on your goal number of weddings
If you want to go from 8 weddings to 20, you need 12 more weddings.
Projected revenue formula:
(Goal weddings × AOV) = projected gross revenue
(Goal weddings × AOV) = projected gross revenue
4) Estimate your cost of goods (flowers + supplies)
If you’re still learning sourcing/recipes, Jen recommends being conservative:
- 30–35% as a planning range for flower costs (COGS)
COGS formula:
Projected revenue × COGS % = flower/supply costs
Projected revenue × COGS % = flower/supply costs
5) Subtract fixed “lights-on” business expenses
These are costs like:
- website
- Canva
- QuickBooks/bookkeeping software
- email platform
- admin tools/subscriptions
- business renewals/fees
- vehicle costs (if the business covers them)
Fixed costs formula:
Monthly fixed expenses × 12 = annual fixed expenses
Monthly fixed expenses × 12 = annual fixed expenses
6) Add labor estimates (freelancers)
Example logic from the episode:
- how many weddings need help
- how many hours per wedding
- hourly rate
- number of staff-days
Labor formula:
(Hours × rate × number of days/weddings) = labor cost
(Hours × rate × number of days/weddings) = labor cost
7) Set aside taxes (don’t get surprised later)
Jen specifically mentions sales tax and recommends setting aside a percentage (often close to 10% in MN depending on location/rate, but use your local rate).
Tax set-aside formula:
Projected revenue × tax % = tax bucket
Projected revenue × tax % = tax bucket
8) Build profit into the business (a cushion)
Profit is not “whatever is left.” It’s intentional.
Even starting with 5–7% gives you a cushion for growth:
Even starting with 5–7% gives you a cushion for growth:
- cooler purchase
- education
- equipment
- upgrades
- emergency buffer
Profit formula:
Net-after-costs × profit % = profit bucket
Net-after-costs × profit % = profit bucket
9) What’s left can become owner’s compensation (pay yourself)
After subtracting:
- COGS
- fixed costs
- labor
- taxes
- profit
…the remainder is what you can use to pay yourself (owner’s comp), then plan for income taxes/self-employment taxes depending on your setup.
Practical Action Steps (Do This This Week)
- Make a simple spreadsheet with columns for:
- inquiries
- consults
- proposals
- bookings
- close rate
- List your booked weddings and total revenue → calculate your AOV
- Choose your booking goal (ex: 20 weddings)
- Forecast gross revenue (goal × AOV)
- Pick conservative COGS % (30–35% if you’re still dialing in recipes)
- Estimate annual “lights-on” expenses
- Estimate freelancer labor
- Create 3 buckets in your business:
- tax set-aside
- profit cushion
- owner pay
- Review the final number and ask:
- “Is this enough for the life I want?”
- “What needs to change: price, volume, efficiency, or offers?”
Mentioned in This Episode
Book Recommendation
Profit First by Mike Michalowicz (Jen’s foundational framework for building profit and paying yourself consistently) https://a.co/d/1s9O2mm
